
UEFA Nations League · 28 September 2026

Match centre
Our prediction
OV1.5
Predicts if total goals will be over 1 goals
High
confidence
Value analysis
-8% edgeThe odds broadly match our model, so there's limited betting value here.
Türkiye take on Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, 28 September 2026. Below is our data-driven preview and prediction for this fixture, based on head-to-head history, recent form and league position.
Going into the game, Türkiye sit 3rd in the UEFA Nations League on 0 points from 1 game, while Italy are 4th on 0 points.
Final result: Türkiye 1–4 Italy. Italy won the match.
Türkiye come into this fixture having won 0, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 2 games (LL), scoring in 1 of them.
Italy come into this fixture having won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 2 games (LW), scoring in 1 of them.
In their last 5 meetings, Türkiye have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 against Italy. These fixtures have averaged 1.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
Defensively, Türkiye kept 1 clean sheet and Italy kept 2 across those meetings, giving a useful guide to how tight this matchup tends to be.
Our prediction for Türkiye vs Italy is Predicts if total goals will be over 1 goals with a 75% confidence rating at odds of 1.2. This tip is informed by the head-to-head trends above (1.6 goals per game, 20% both-teams-to-score), recent form (Türkiye LL, Italy LW), the 1-place gap between the sides in the table.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Comp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct 2026 | Italy | – | Türkiye | UEFA Nations League |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Türkiye | – | Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 04 Jun 2024 | Italy | 0–0 | Türkiye | Friendlies |
| 29 Mar 2022 | Türkiye | 2–3 | Italy | Friendlies |
| 11 Jun 2021 | Türkiye | 0–3 |
Predictions are statistical estimates and not guaranteed outcomes. Compare markets and stake responsibly — never bet more than you can afford to lose.
| Italy |
| Euro Championship |