Italy vs Türkiye: Prediction, H2H & Betting Tips

Italy take on Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, 5 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico. Below is our data-driven preview and prediction for this fixture, based on head-to-head history, recent form and league position.

Going into the game, Italy sit 3rd in the UEFA Nations League on 3 points from 2 games, while Türkiye are 4th on 0 points.

Italy come into this fixture having won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 games (LWD), scoring in 2 of them.

Türkiye come into this fixture having won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 games (LLL), scoring in 1 of them.

In their last 5 meetings, Italy have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 against Türkiye. These fixtures have averaged 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.

Defensively, Italy kept 2 clean sheets and Türkiye kept 1 across those meetings, giving a useful guide to how tight this matchup tends to be.

Our prediction for Italy vs Türkiye is Home Team to Score at least one goal before their opponent with a 85% confidence rating at odds of 1.25. This tip is informed by the head-to-head trends above (2.6 goals per game, 40% both-teams-to-score), recent form (Italy LWD, Türkiye LLL), the 1-place gap between the sides in the table.