UEFA Nations League · 5 October 2026
Match centre
Our prediction
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Home Team to Score at least one goal before their opponent
High
confidence
Value analysis
+5% edge · ValueOur model rates this 5% more likely than the odds imply — a potential value edge.
Italy recorded a 3-1 victory over Türkiye in their UEFA Nations League encounter at the Stadio Olimpico on 5 October 2026.
The home side set the platform for success in the first half, taking a 1-0 advantage into the break under the officiating of referee Szymon Marciniak.
The second period produced further goalscoring action, but Italy remained in control to seal a comfortable 3-1 result by the final whistle.
From a betting perspective, the outcome continued a clear head-to-head trend between the two sides. Italy have now won three of their last four meetings with Türkiye, while the visitors remain winless across that four-match stretch.
Italy take on Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, 5 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico. Below is our data-driven preview and prediction for this fixture, based on head-to-head history, recent form and league position.
Predictions are statistical estimates and not guaranteed outcomes. Compare markets and stake responsibly — never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Going into the game, Italy sit 2nd in the UEFA Nations League on 7 points from 4 games, while Türkiye are 4th on 0 points.
Final result: Italy 3–1 Türkiye. Italy won the match.
Italy come into this fixture having won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 games (LWDW), scoring in 3 of them.
Türkiye come into this fixture having won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 games (LLLL), scoring in 2 of them.
In their last 5 meetings, Italy have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 against Türkiye. These fixtures have averaged 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
Defensively, Italy kept 2 clean sheets and Türkiye kept 1 across those meetings, giving a useful guide to how tight this matchup tends to be.
Our prediction for Italy vs Türkiye is Home Team to Score at least one goal before their opponent with a 85% confidence rating at odds of 1.25. This tip is informed by the head-to-head trends above (2.6 goals per game, 40% both-teams-to-score), recent form (Italy LWDW, Türkiye LLLL), the 2-place gap between the sides in the table.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Comp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct 2026 | Italy | – | Türkiye | UEFA Nations League |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Türkiye | 1–4 | Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 04 Jun 2024 | Italy | 0–0 | Türkiye | Friendlies |
| 29 Mar 2022 | Türkiye | 2–3 | Italy | Friendlies |
| 11 Jun 2021 | Türkiye | 0–3 | Italy | Euro Championship |
