Derby vs Stoke City: Prediction, H2H & Betting Tips

Derby take on Stoke City in the Championship on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Below is our data-driven preview and prediction for this fixture, based on head-to-head history, recent form and league position.

Going into the game, Derby sit 23rd in the Championship on 6 points from 10 games, while Stoke City are 9th on 16 points.

Derby come into this fixture having won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 games (LDDLL), scoring in 4 of them.

Stoke City come into this fixture having won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games (DWWWL), scoring in every game.

In their last 15 meetings, Derby have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 4 against Stoke City. These fixtures have averaged 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.

Defensively, Derby kept 6 clean sheets and Stoke City kept 4 across those meetings, giving a useful guide to how tight this matchup tends to be.

Our prediction for Derby vs Stoke City is Away or over 2 goals with a 78% confidence rating at odds of 1.29. This tip is informed by the head-to-head trends above (2.0 goals per game, 40% both-teams-to-score), recent form (Derby LDDLL, Stoke City DWWWL), the 14-place gap between the sides in the table.