Arouca vs Estrela: Prediction, H2H & Betting Tips

Arouca take on Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Below is our data-driven preview and prediction for this fixture, based on head-to-head history, recent form and league position.

Going into the game, Arouca sit 5th in the Primeira Liga on 11 points from 7 games, while Estrela are 9th on 10 points.

Arouca come into this fixture having won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 games (LWDLD), scoring in 3 of them.

Estrela come into this fixture having won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games (WDWDL), scoring in 4 of them.

In their last 8 meetings, Arouca have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 against Estrela. These fixtures have averaged 1.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 38% of them.

Defensively, Arouca kept 3 clean sheets and Estrela kept 1 across those meetings, giving a useful guide to how tight this matchup tends to be.

Our prediction for Arouca vs Estrela is Home Team to Score at least one goal with a 84% confidence rating at odds of 1.19. This tip is informed by the head-to-head trends above (1.8 goals per game, 38% both-teams-to-score), recent form (Arouca LWDLD, Estrela WDWDL), the 4-place gap between the sides in the table.